Sam Altman, the newly appointed President of Y-Combinator, describes the contrarian nature of his black swan seed rounds. He writes, “The most striking observation is that, in my experience, the ‘hot seed rounds’ that everyone is fighting to get in are anti-correlated with very successful investments. […] The hotly-competed seed investments I’ve made have underperformed. For all of the really good seed investments I’ve made, other investors I respected thought they were bad ideas.”

Sam Altman: Black Swan Seed Rounds